tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3008642600708028986.post2992727829265939704..comments2023-09-07T20:42:08.035+08:00Comments on Market Uncle's Blog: First Ship Lease Trust - Risk Analysismarket unclehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16460144334144587714noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3008642600708028986.post-20261040462998133872008-10-29T20:56:00.000+08:002008-10-29T20:56:00.000+08:00Hi sgdividend, Any sound investment offers a pote...Hi sgdividend,<BR/> Any sound investment offers a potential return for a certain risk. It is up to the potential investor to decide whether or not the returns is worth the risk.<BR/><BR/> For FSL, the risk is very high indeed. But from my point of view, the returns are much higher. If I'm putting all my eggs into FSL, then I'll obviously be crazy risk taker. But since FSL only constitute part of my diversified portfolio, then I see myself as just taking a calculated risk. Anyway, the risk diminishes as my portfolio diversifies.Market Unclehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13926458268187430049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3008642600708028986.post-14958054016215015042008-10-25T19:53:00.000+08:002008-10-25T19:53:00.000+08:00Market uncle...this analysis is extremely good and...Market uncle...this analysis is extremely good and best of all simple. <BR/><BR/>Having read that, from my perspective, i would 100% steer clear of it and yet, if im not wrong, you are still holding it,<BR/>you must be a highly risk taking person! <BR/><BR/>Respect.SGDividendshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10774926511253473514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3008642600708028986.post-86818357770541126422008-10-20T21:11:00.000+08:002008-10-20T21:11:00.000+08:00Hi Donmihaihai, That's another way to look at it....Hi Donmihaihai,<BR/> That's another way to look at it. One word of caution though, Ships are valued at projected revenue they can bring in (i.e. shipping rates). With the bursting of the commodity bubble, shipping rates had almost collapsed. With that, the value of the ships will also plunge. Thus, the value of FSL's assets will be written down as well.<BR/><BR/> So a huge margin of net assets over market cap will be required for a conservative margin of safety.Market Unclehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13926458268187430049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3008642600708028986.post-74614571821856465342008-10-19T23:28:00.000+08:002008-10-19T23:28:00.000+08:00hi,I think there is another way of looking at it t...hi,<BR/><BR/>I think there is another way of looking at it that is in case FSLT defaulted and need to sell off its vessels. That is in strictly distressed case. <BR/><BR/>At this case, total assets - total liabilities = net assets > double of market cap of FSLT, then it become increasing. Vessel has value and no bank want to call loans result in having trouble selling them.<BR/><BR/># 2X market cap is I anyhow use one. But the greater it is more than Market Cap, the greater the margin of safety.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3008642600708028986.post-80276608489510735402008-10-19T20:40:00.000+08:002008-10-19T20:40:00.000+08:00Good analysis on FSLT, exactly what we want to kno...Good analysis on FSLT, exactly what we want to know at current crisis. Cheers!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com